Corelogic

Property values across the country continued to decline over November, research from property data firm CoreLogic found, but there was a further ease in the speed of the declines.

Dwelling values (which incorporates both houses and units), contracted a further one per cent in November, driven by declines in Hobart (-2 per cent), Canberra (-1.2 per cent), and Sydney (-1 per cent).

Capital city housing markets declined -1.2 per cent, with Brisbane (-2.2 per cent), Hobart (-2 per cent) and Sydney (-1.5 per cent), feeling the declines the hardest.

Capital city units however dropped just -0.6 per cent. Hobart (-1.8 per cent), Sydney (-0.9 per cent) and Canberra (-0.8 per cent) the capital's the most affected in the unit market.

Declines however have continued to soften since August when the national index dropped by -1.6 per cent.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, but is also evident across many of the smaller capitals and most regional markets.&nbsp;

“Three months ago, Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of -2.3 per cent. That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of -1.3 per cent in November," Lawless said.&nbsp;

"In July, Melbourne home values were down -1.5 per cent over the month, with the monthly decline almost halving last month to -0.8 per cent.

“The rate of decline has also eased across the ACT (from a -1.7% fall in August), and is no longer accelerating in Brisbane. Most of the broad rest-of-state markets have also seen the pace of declines decelerate."

Lawless said that it is possible we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls. He does however note that housing risk remains skewed to the downside while interest rates are still rising and household balance sheets become more thinly stretched.

“There is still the possibility that the pace of declines could reaccelerate, especially if the current rate hiking cycle persists longer than expected.

"Next year will be a particular test of serviceability and housing market stability, as the record-low fixed rate terms secured in 2021 start to expire."

<h2>Melbourne Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Melbourne dropped just -0.2 per cent across November, the lowest declines the Victorian capital has seen since May. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>It's stark comparison to the housing market, which dropped another -1 per cent.</li>
</ul>

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<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -4.1 per cent down over 2022, almost half the declines felt in the housing market, now -8.1 per cent since the turn of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Melbourne unit value is now $597,000, and houses $759,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Sydney Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Sydney dropped just -0.9&nbsp;per cent across November, the third highest of all the capital city markets. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Sydney houses dropped another -1.5 per cent in November.</li>
</ul>

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<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -8.2 per cent down over 2022, which is double the declines in Melbourne. Houses in the Harbour capital are down -11.9 per cent in the same period. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Sydney unit value is now $781,000, and houses $1,025,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Brisbane Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Brisbane had the biggest divergence between the house and unit market in November 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Unit values across Brisbane dropped just -0.2&nbsp;per cent across November, the third best performing unit market across the capitals. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Brisbane houses however were the worst performer, down -2.2 per cent</li>
</ul>

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<ul>
	<li>The Brisbane unit market has been one of the biggest success stories of 2022, bucking the trend of the downturn. Values are still 7.1 per cent higher than they were at the start of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The Brisbane house market has also remained resilient, just ticking into negative territory, down -0.8 per cent this year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Brisbane unit value is now $492,000, and houses $798,000.</li>
</ul>

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets

Joel Robinson

Property downturn continues, but rate of decline softens again: CoreLogic

This time has come for apartments to reign over houses.

It feels like for the last decade, houses have been the ones growing exponentially (that&#39;s because they have) - while apartments, while still seeing solid growth, have been playing second fiddle.

The latest data however out of property data house CoreLogic shows apartment values rose faster than houses in more than half of a pool of suburbs across the country in the past three months, as stretched affordability and lower borrowing capacity forced buyers to opt for high-density homes.

Rising rents are also expected to lure more investors to the unit market and help fuel further price gains this year.

Of the 899 suburbs analysed, units outperformed houses across 489 markets in the last three months.

Compared to a 12 month analysis, only 180 of the same 899 suburbs saw apartments outperform houses.&nbsp;

&quot;This suggests it is a more recent phenomenon where unit values would out-perform houses,&quot; CoreLogic advised.

&quot;It is also in line with the nature of downturns historically, where houses tend to have more volatility, and deeper declines than what we may see in the unit segment.&quot;

Across the capital cities, growth rates have generally been stronger in unit markets further from the CBD.

Sydney&#39;s Newtown was one of 20 Greater Sydney suburbs which saw the unit market outstrip houses. Among others were Darlinghurst, Darlington and Zetland near the CBD, and Caringbah South and Woolooware in the Sutherland Shire area.

In Woolooware, unit values&nbsp;are two and a half times cheaper than houses. Units rose&nbsp;4.9 per cent over the last three months to a median $1.036 million, while the 2.5 per cent house price declines took the median house price to $2.7&nbsp;million.

Sydney-wide, the median house price is now 70 per cent more expensive than units.&nbsp;

Melbourne&#39;s Kensington saw the biggest difference in the house and unit market, with units rising 7.2 per cent and houses remaining flat.

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Port Melbourne and Balaclava also saw big swings in favour of the unit market.

Melbourne&#39;s&nbsp;houses are 59 per cent more expensive than units -&nbsp;a drop from 61 per cent earlier this year, while the ACT showed a slight drop with&nbsp;house prices 73 per cent higher compared to units -&nbsp;down one per cent from last year.&nbsp;

Looking ahead, the increased overseas migration, and the relative affordability of units compared to houses, as well as the recent upswing in new investor financing seen in February and March, will likely help insulate the apartment sector.

<h2>The biggest differences in Sydney markets</h2>

<h2><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/syd.png"><img alt="" height="614" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/syd.png" width="1558" /></a></h2>

<h2>The biggest differences in Melbourne&nbsp;markets</h2>

<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.10.17_am.png"><img alt="" height="616" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.10.17_am.png" width="1556" /></a>

<h2>The biggest differences in Brisbane markets</h2>

<h2><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.12.36_am.png"><img alt="" height="616" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.12.36_am.png" width="1556" /></a></h2>

&nbsp;

Of the 899 suburbs analysed, units outperformed houses across 489 markets in the last three months

The suburbs where apartments are outperforming houses

The Brisbane unit market is showing consistent growth,&nbsp;according to CoreLogic&#39;s Monthly Hedonic Home Value Index.

Values jumped 1.4%, following the 1.6% gains in March and 1.5%&nbsp;over February. Values are now 6% up over 2022 already, well on their way to matching the 14.4% growth over 2021.

The quarterly performance, up 4.6%, is the highest in the country for the unit market.

The median apartment value in Brisbane is now $488,393. At the start of 2021, it was just over $390,000.

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Following the RBA&#39;s first interest rate rise in nearly 12 years at the May meeting,&nbsp;the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) said the&nbsp;resilient Queensland market the higher rate forecasts.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said given the level of inflation, this may not be the last interest rate rise we see, but it was important to recognise that many market conditions and external factors remain favourable in Queensland.

&ldquo;We know that consumer confidence is key, and this move by the RBA will certainly make people stop and think more carefully about how much they are prepared to borrow, because it&rsquo;s a timely reminder that interest rates can and do go up,&rdquo; she said.

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&ldquo;While on the face of it, it&rsquo;s not an insignificant rise, in the grand scheme of things interest rates have been at historic lows for some time and are still very low.

&ldquo;This is also where our relative affordability is an advantage, as our average home loan rate is much lower than in capital cities like Sydney and Melbourne, and so the impact will be felt less here.

&ldquo;We remain confident in the resilience of the Queensland market because the need and demand for housing is irrespective, and an interest rate rise simply causes people to rethink what they are prepared to spend and how big of a loan they are prepared to enter into.&quot;

Total advertised inventory of both houses and apartments&nbsp;is more than 20 per cent below levels from a year ago in Brisbane, and around 40 per cent lower than the previous five-year average.

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The median apartment value in Brisbane is now $488,393. At the start of 2021, it was just over $390,000

Brisbane apartment market insights: What happened over April

Melbourne&#39;s unit market has continued to hold firm despite a cooling off in the house market.

CoreLogic&rsquo;s national Home Value Index pegged the Melbourne-wide apartment growth at 0.4% over April, the third consecutive month growth in the unit market has outstripped growth in the house market.

The Melbourne unit market (which incorporates both units and townhouses), is now 0.2% since the start of 2022, after posting 0.2% growth across March and 0.1% in Feb. Values started the year poorly, going backwards -0.4% in January.

The median apartment value in Melbourne is now $630,671.

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The growth in unit values is a stark contrast to the house market, which is sliding due to the affordability factors brought to more of a head following the RBA&#39;s interest rate hike in May, and expectation of further rate hikes.

Houses Melbourne-wide, on average, have remained flat since the start of 2022, but that was mainly due to a strong start in January. The rolling quarterly growth is now -0.5% after a 0.2% decline across April, CoreLogic data found.&nbsp;

CoreLogic&rsquo;s Research Director Tim Lawless&nbsp;says the weakening state of the market has taken the rolling quarterly trend into negative territory across Melbourne for the first time since these cities were in the midst of extended lockdowns in mid-to-late 2020.

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Advertised inventory, at a national level, is tracking almost 30 per cent below the previous five-year average however, in weaker markets like Melbourne, advertised supply levels have normalised, with listings in Melbourne 8.2%&nbsp;higher.

Higher stock levels across these markets can be explained by an above average flow of new listings coming on the market in combination with a drop in buyer demand

&ldquo;With higher inventory levels and less competition, buyers are gradually moving back into the driver&rsquo;s seat. That means more time to deliberate on their purchase decisions and negotiate on price,&rdquo; Lawless says.

Rental markets are also showing multi-speed conditions, with most of the capital cities experiencing an upward trend in rental growth in 2022. Nationally, rents were up 2.7% over the three months to April, taking the annual change in national rents to 9.0%. A year ago, the annual change in national rents was 4.9 per cent. Based on the annual change, house rents (+9.1 per cent) are rising faster than unit rents (+8.7 per cent), however this trend is changing sharply as demand for unit rentals increases.

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&ldquo;On a rolling quarterly basis, we are now seeing unit rents rising faster than house rents especially in Melbourne where rental conditions across the unit sector were previously much softer,&rdquo; Lawless says.

&ldquo;The shift in rental demand towards units reflects both rental affordability pressures, which are deflecting more demand towards the &lsquo;cheaper&rsquo; unit sector, and the return of overseas migrants and visitors. Rental demand from overseas arrivals tends to skew towards inner city and higher density precincts.&rdquo;

In Melbourne, unit rents are 3.6 per cent higher over the past three months compared with a 1.2 per cent rise in house rents. Higher yields and long-term prospects for capital growth could see investors comprising a larger portion of housing market activity.

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With the cash rate set to move through a rapid tightening cycle, CoreLogic expect this trend towards a gradual softening in the growth rate will become more pronounced over the coming months, before the national index starts to trend lower.

&ldquo;Although we are expecting the housing market to move into a downturn through the second half of the year, it is important to remember the context of the recent growth phase,&rdquo; he says.

Melbourne's unit market has continued to hold firm despite a cooling off in the house market


alisonwarters@gmail.com

Melbourne apartment market insights: What happened over April

Melbourne units saw more growth than houses across the Victorian capital over the month of March, CoreLogic&#39;s most recent Home Value Index found.

Unit values rose 0.2 per cent Melbourne-wide, compare to the -0.2 per cent value losses across the housing market.

Since the start of the year, unit values are down -0.2 per cent, however, a sign of the market bouncing back in the city and its surrounds, unit values in the City of Melbourne LGA are up 8.6 per cent in the last six months.

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Melbourne unit rents are up 6.9 per cent&nbsp;over the past year, after posting a peak to trough fall of&nbsp;8.5 per cent.

Through the pandemic to-date, house rents in capital&#39;s have risen by 13.8 per cent, compared with a 3.4 per cent rise in unit values nationally.

CoreLogic&#39;s Research Director, Tim Lawless, says the net result is that renting a unit is substantially more affordable than renting a house.

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&quot;This affordability advantage, along with a gradual return of overseas migration, employees progressively returning to offices and inner city precincts regaining some vibrancy, are likely key factors pushing unit rents higher,&rdquo; Lawless said.

There&#39;s further growth anticipated for the Melbourne unit market.

&quot;In the lead-up to the federal election, both major political parties have already announced additional support for first home buyers in the form of an extension to low deposit home loan guarantees,&quot; Lawless added.

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&quot;Historically, first home buyers have reacted positively to stimulus measures.

&quot;A return of migration will also impact the change, with higher overseas migration&nbsp;a net positive for housing demand.

&quot;The most immediate flow through is likely to be seen in higher rental demand which could incentivise investors and, in the longer term, flow through to purchasing demand from permanent migrants.&quot;

Melbourne unit rents are up 6.9 per cent over the past year, after posting a peak to trough fall of 8.5 per cent


Melbourne units outperform houses over March: CoreLogic

Melbourne apartment values bounced back from a decline across January, posting 0.1 per cent gains in February, CoreLogic&#39;s Monthly Hedonic Home Value Index showed.

The growth outstripped houses, which were flat across the month.

Apartment values across Melbourne rose seven per cent over 2021, which was the lowest growth across all major capitals, namely due to the extended lockdowns Victorian&#39;s faced.

Overseas arrivals and seasonal rental market strength have given a shot in the arm to the rental market, which has been more apparent in the unit market.

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CoreLogic&#39;s Head of Research Tim&nbsp;Lawless says the&nbsp;stronger trend in unit rents is most visible in Sydney and Melbourne.

&ldquo;Anecdotally, demand for unit rentals in these cities has been bolstered by a combination of worsening rental affordability deflecting more demand towards the higher density sector, where rents tend to be lower, and demand starting to return from overseas arrivals,&rdquo; Lawless&nbsp;said.

With the pace of growth in housing values softening while rental growth holds reasonably firm, the gross yield profile has finally stabilised at 3.2%, the lowest rate on record. Sydney (2.4%) and Melbourne (2.8%), which have the lowest yield profiles, recorded a slight strengthening in gross yields this month, as rental growth nudges higher than growth in housing values.

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Lawless believes&nbsp;we could be seeing rental yields moving through the bottom of their cycle.

&ldquo;After several years of yield compression where gross rental yields reached historic lows across most of Australia&rsquo;s capital cities, we are finally seeing early evidence of yield repair. If rents continue to rise faster than housing values, which is a strong possibility in Sydney and Melbourne, yields will continue to improve.

&ldquo;Cities such as Brisbane and Adelaide, where housing values are still consistently rising faster than rents, are likely to see yields compress to new record lows.

&quot;Despite the downwards trend, yields in these cities remain well above Sydney and Melbourne levels,&rdquo; Lawless said.

&nbsp;

Apartment values across Melbourne rose seven per cent over 2021, which was the lowest growth across all major capitals, namely due to the extended lockdowns Victorian's faced

What happened to Melbourne apartment values in February?

Sydney is approaching a point in the real estate cycle where growth in apartment values is nearly matching the growth in the housing market,&nbsp;CoreLogic&#39;s&nbsp;monthly Hedonic Home Value Index found.

Apartment values rose 0.7 per cent over November, compared to the one per cent gains in houses. For context, across March this year, Sydney houses posted double the growth of apartments, 4.3 per cent in a single month compared to 2.1 per cent for&nbsp;apartments.

Sydney apartment values are now 15.3 per cent up over 2021, just over half of the nearly 30 per cent gains for houses. That&#39;s stretched the median gap between apartments and houses in the harbour capital to $523,000.

Sydney&#39;s median apartment value is now $837,000, compared to $733,000 at the start of 2021.

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Although values are continuing to rise across the country, the November result was the softest outcome since January when values rose 0.9 per cent.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic&rsquo;s research director, says the slowdown in the pace of growth is due to a number of reasons.

&ldquo;Virtually every factor that has driven housing values higher has lost some potency over recent months,&quot; Lawless noted.

&quot;Fixed mortgage rates are rising, higher listings are taking some urgency away from buyers, affordability has become a more substantial barrier to entry and credit is less available.

&ldquo;With such a large value gap between the broad housing types, it&rsquo;s no wonder we are seeing demand gradually transition towards higher density housing options simply because they are substantially more affordable than buying a h​ouse.&quot;

Sydney's median apartment value is now $837,000, compared to $733,000 at the start of 2021

Sydney apartment insights: What happened to Sydney apartment values in November?

Melbourne apartments values continued to show their resilience&nbsp;over 2021, with a further 0.5 per cent growth in November, CoreLogic&#39;s&nbsp;monthly Hedonic Home Value Index found.

Melbourne&#39;s rolling quarterly gains are now at 1.7 per cent,&nbsp;following a one per cent gain over October and 0.2 per cent growth over September.

The median apartment value across Melbourne is now 8.4 per cent higher than it was at the start of 2021, up from $576,000 to $626,000

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Based on median values, capital city houses are now 37.9 per cent&nbsp;more expensive than capital city units &ndash; the largest difference on record. In dollar value terms, a capital city house is averaging around $240,500 more than a capital city unit.

In Sydney, where the gap between house and unit values is the widest, a house costs $523,000 more on average than a unit. Melbourne&#39;s gap is around $360,000.

Although values are continuing to rise, the November result was the softest outcome since January when values rose 0.9 per cent.

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Tim Lawless, CoreLogic&rsquo;s research director, says the slowdown in the pace of growth is due to a number of reasons.

&ldquo;Virtually every factor that has driven housing values higher has lost some potency over recent months. Fixed mortgage rates are rising, higher listings are taking some urgency away from buyers, affordability has become a more substantial barrier to entry and credit is less available,&quot; Lawless noted.

&ldquo;With such a large value gap between the broad housing types, it&rsquo;s no wonder we are seeing demand gradually transition towards higher density housing options simply because they are substantially more affordable than buying a house.&quot;

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Apartment rents in Melbourne continue to rise at a faster pace than house rents over the past four or five months, one of the few capital city&#39;s to be doing so, as investors become more and more inclined to get back in to the inner-city market.

&ldquo;Melbourne&rsquo;s unit sector was previously recording the weakest rental conditions of any capital city, with rents plunging -8.5% between March 2020 and May 2021,&quot; Lawless said.

&quot;It seems that more tenants are taking advantage of the renewed affordability of unit rentals, especially across inner city precincts where rents had previously fallen sharply.&quot;

In Sydney, where the gap between house and unit values is the widest, a house costs $523,000 more on average than a unit. Melbourne's gap is around $360,000.

Melbourne apartment insights: What happened to Melbourne apartment values in November?

Brisbane apartment values spiked 1.3 per cent over October, posting its second highest monthly returns of 2021, CoreLogic&#39;s Hedonic Home Value Index found.

The continued growth sees Brisbane&#39;s apartment values rise 3.3 per cent on a rolling quarterly average, following 0.6 per cent gains last month and 1.4 per cent growth over August.

Apartment values ended 2020 at $390,000. Now the median apartment value is $437,000, up 9.7 per cent year to date.

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Brisbane&#39;s rental increase has also been one of the highest in the country, up 2.3 per cent over the last three months, only second to Sydney where rents rose 2.4 per cent.

Overall Brisbane was the fastest growing market over October, with values up 2.5 per cent across the combined house and unit markets.

It was another month in Brisbane where the price gap between houses and units grew further. Houses saw 2.8 per cent gains, more than double the rate of growth for units.

&nbsp;

&ldquo;As housing becomes less affordable, we expect to see more demand deflected towards the higher density sectors of the market,&quot; CoreLogic&#39;s research director, Tim Lawless, said.&nbsp;

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&quot;House prices continue to outpace wages by a ratio of around 12:1,&quot; Lawless noted.

&quot;This is one of the reasons why first home buyers are becoming a progressively smaller component of housing demand.&quot;

Lawless&nbsp;expects the flick to higher density&nbsp;to occur most prevalently&nbsp;in Sydney than anywhere else in the country. The gap between the median house and unit value is now nearly $500,000. In Brisbane it&#39;s around $300,000. Melbourne&#39;s house median was $731,000 after the 2.8 per cent October gains.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106960 project_image_fid=170163]

&quot;With investors becoming a larger component of new housing finance, we may see more demand flowing into medium to high density properties,&quot; Lawless added.

&quot;Investor demand across the unit sector could be bolstered as overseas borders open, which is likely to have a positive impact on rental demand, especially across inner city unit precincts.&rdquo;

&nbsp;

Apartment values ended 2020 at $390,000. Now the median apartment value is $437,000, up 9.7 per cent year to date

Brisbane apartment insights: What happened to Brisbane apartment prices over October?

Sydney apartments values continued their strength&nbsp;over October, posting 1.2 per cent gains over the month to now be 14.5 per cent over the calendar year,&nbsp;according to the monthly Hedonic Home Value Index by CoreLogic.

The gains follow 1.4 per cent growth in August and 1.6 per cent in both June and July.

Over 2020, values were down -0.2 per cent.

The median has now jumped over $100,000 since the start of the year, when the median apartment value was $733,000. Now it&#39;s $837,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150461]

CoreLogic&#39;s research director Tim Lawless believes Sydney will see the highest trend toward high density living compared to the other capitals, as the gap between the median apartment value and median house value rises to over $500,000. (Sydney&#39;s median house value is now $1.33 million, up 1.6 per cent over October).

&ldquo;As housing becomes less affordable, we expect to see more demand deflected towards the higher density sectors of the market,&quot; CoreLogic&#39;s research director, Tim Lawless, said.&nbsp;

&quot;House prices continue to outpace wages by a ratio of around 12:1,&quot; Lawless noted.

&quot;This is one of the reasons why first home buyers are becoming a progressively smaller component of housing demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150450]

&quot;With investors becoming a larger component of new housing finance, we may see more demand flowing into medium to high density properties,&quot; Lawless added.

&quot;Investor demand across the unit sector could be bolstered as overseas borders open, which is likely to have a positive impact on rental demand, especially across inner city unit precincts.&rdquo;

Sydney has seen the largest rise in rents over the last three months, up 2.4 per cent, followed&nbsp;by Brisbane, regional Queensland and regional New South Wales (all up 2.3 per cent).

The median has now jumped over $100,000 since the start of the year, when the median apartment value was $733,000. Now it's $837,000

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