Residential Sales

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As a result of new lending criteria delivered to deposit-taking institutions by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) a lot of attention has been placed on the pace of lending for residential housing investment. 
The APRA guidelines highlighted a limit on annual investment credit growth for ADIs of 10% however, from that point until June 2015 the annual rate of investment credit growth continued to increase.
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Although it’s only one month of data, the latest housing credit data to July 2015 suggests that we may be finally set to see a slowing of investment credit growth. 
Over the 12 months to July 2015, the Reserve Bank (RBA) reports that total housing credit rose by 7.4%; its fastest annual rate of growth since October 2010, and consisted of a 5.3% annual increase in owner occupier credit (fastest growth since March 2012) and a 10.8% annual rise in investor credit.
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Investor housing credit is still growing at a robust pace however, at 10.8% over the year it is down from 11.1% in June and at its lowest level since March 2015. “In fact, the monthly investor housing credit data shows credit advanced by just 0.6% in July which was its lowest monthly increase since October 2013. 
Investment segment lending data on the investment segment suggests that following recent changes to lending policies by Australian ADIs, lending to the investment segment of the market is set to slow further over the coming months. 
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With mortgage rates remaining low we would anticipate the rate of growth will slow to around the 10% per annum benchmark, however this is unlikely to drop much further than that.
While any slowdown in investment growth may have an impact on overall housing credit figures, Mr Kusher noted that it’s important to recall that a much greater proportion of overall lending goes to owner occupiers. 
In July 2015, the total value of outstanding housing credit was $1.476 trillion. This figure was comprised of $906.4 billion in lending to owner occupiers and $569.8 billion to investors. 
It’s important to remember that the rate of growth in owner occupier lending has also been rising although over the past year there was a $45.2 billion expansion in credit to owner occupiers compared to $56.1 billion to investors. Furthermore, the proportion of total mortgage credit to investors is at a record high 38.6%. 
ADIs of course don’t lend exclusively for mortgages and the latest data shows an encouraging lift in credit to businesses. In July 2015 business credit rose by 0.7% to be 4.8% higher over the year. Total business credit is currently recorded at $799.7 billion, which is significantly larger than investment housing credit.
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The RBA and APRA are likely to be very encouraged to see the first signs of a slowing of lending to the investment housing segment and would hope that it continues over the coming months. 
While this may result in a slight slowing in overall housing credit growth increases, this shouldn’t be viewed as a negative outcome. If the recent increase in business credit can continue it would arguably provide greater economic benefit. 
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Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Has growth in investor housing credit reached its apex? Cameron Kusher

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This week, CoreLogic RP Data is expecting 2,842 auctions across the capital city markets, the highest number of weekly auctions since the week leading up to Easter, when 3,668 capital city auctions were held.
The rise in volumes comes of the back of a lower clearance rate last week, when the final results reported a combined capital city weighted average of 69.9 per cent, the lowest clearance rate since February this year. The lower result was driven by a fall across Sydney, where 70.7 per cent of auctions were successful last week, the lowest clearance rate for the city this year.
Melbourne and Sydney are both expecting a high volume of auctions this week, with 1,206 scheduled in Melbourne and 1,198 in Sydney. In comparison, last week 1,127 Melbourne auctions were held and 1,041 in Sydney.
Last week, Adelaide’s clearance rate was 71.4 per cent, the second strongest result for any capital city (following Melbourne at 73.7 per cent) and this week Adelaide auction volumes are set to rise from 99 last week to 130. Similarly, Brisbane auction volumes are also on the rise, with 202 auctions this week, compared to 143 last week
Canberra (58 this week compared to 118 last week) and Perth (25 this week compared to 31 last week) are the only two cities where the number of auctions is down week on week, however, both cities current auction activity is higher than it was one year ago.
The Australian suburb with the highest number of auctions this week is Reservoir (Vic) where 23 residential auctions will be held. Following on from this is Mosman (NSW) with 19, Preston (Vic) with 17 and Glen Waverley (Vic) with 16.
 
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Busiest week for auctions since before Easter: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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Chinese capital has a huge role to play in Australia's housing market over the next few years, for better or for worse. 
But there are some looming obstacles. 
New South Wales recently introduced a 4 percent stamp duty surcharge for non-resident buyers, with a 0.75 percent land tax. 
Harsh, yes, but not as onerous for apartment buyers as the 7 percent stamp duty surcharge that became effective from 1 July in Victoria, while Queensland has also introduced a 3 percent surcharge. 
Meanwhile, banks and brokers fearing investigation have become extremely reluctant to lend to non-resident buyers declaring only foreign income. 
With a record volume of apartments due for completion over the next two years, and many of these having been bought off the plan by overseas buyers, one way or another one feels that something has to give. 
Fork...
At this juncture it feels like it could go either way.
We know that Australia (and particularly Melbourne and Sydney) is a favourite destination for Chinese capital. 
Across the drink, Vancouver recently introduced a monster 15 percent tax on non-residents which has turned Chinese investors away and is pushing that housing market south. 
This could in turn lead more Chinese buyers to look at Australia as the destination for their fleeing capital.
Although prices have gotten more expensive in Australia for local buyers, thanks to foreign exchange movements this is not so for the Chinese. 
Unit prices may have increased by 41 percent over the last four years in Sydney, for example, but when translated into CNY prices have not moved up at all in real terms. 
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Chinese buyers... where to from here? Pete Wargent

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SPONSORED POST
Millers Point has one of the richest cultural and architectural histories in Sydney, with picturesque heritage buildings and historical landmarks.
Boasting breath-taking views, tree-lined streets and the serene tranquillity of Observatory Hill, as well as an energetic arts and cultural scene, Millers Point has something for everyone.
It’s a mere moment’s stroll to the theatres, cafes and restaurants of the Walsh Bay arts and cultural scene, the bustling shops and pubs of The Rocks, or a quick trip into Sydney’s CBD.
The doorstep of The Rocks
Framed by Sydney Harbour Bridge and Sydney Opera House, and nestled on the edge of breathtaking Sydney Harbour, The Rocks offers an unrivalled blend of the old and new.
From intimate heritage architecture and cobblestoned laneways, to stylish modern bars, some of Sydney’s finest restaurants and curious places to shop and explore.
With the MCA as one of its modern ambassadors, The Rocks is emerging as Sydney’s new cultural precinct, and has been transformed into a creative nucleus of contemporary art, festivals and evolving pop-up spaces.
The Rocks: it’s a perfect blend of culture, cuisine and experiences that are worth savouring.
For more information on Millers Point and The Rocks visit <a href="https://www.rediscovermillerspoint.com.au" target="_blank">www.rediscovermillerspoint.com.au</a>
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Millers Point – the heart of Sydney

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The NSW Government’s Millers Point sales program continues to deliver excellent results with the auction of seven properties in late 2016 for a combined $35.22million.
The sales included the highest value single property sold to date – a block of 12 one bedroom apartments on the corner of Merriman and Bettington streets, which sold for $12.3 million.
Interest in Millers Point continues to be strong, with the most recent sales recording an average rate per square metre of $19,462 (floor area), an increase of 23 per cent compared to the Millers Point sales program to date.
Other properties sold include:
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<li>15 Lower Fort Street, sold for $5.05 million.</li>
<li>36 Argyle Place, sold for $3.71 million</li>
<li>66 Bettington Street, sold for $2.42 million</li>
<li>61 Kent Street, sold for $2.11 million</li>
<li>42-44A High Street, sold for $4.81 million.</li>
<li>46-48A High Street, sold for $4.82 million.</li>
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A total of 125 Government - owned properties in Millers Point have been sold to date, with the proceeds delivering much needed social housing for the 60,000 vulnerable families and individuals on the waiting list.
For more information visit <a href="https://www.rediscovermillerspoint.com.au" target="_blank">www.rediscovermillerspoint.com.au</a>
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Millers Point delivers $35 million in one day

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Prior to this week, the year to date clearance rate across the combined capital cities was 76.9%, indicating that this week’s preliminary clearance rate of 77.7% is performing above this level. 
This week, there were 1,998 auctions held across Australia’s capital cities, with 1,307 results reported so far. Over the previous week, 1,827 residential auctions were held with a clearance rate of 75.4%. In comparison, at the same time last year 67.9% of the 1,705 auctions were sold, indicating the current auction conditions remain stronger than they were one year ago.
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The preliminary clearance rate across Melbourne was recorded at 76.5% this week across 638 auction results. There were 845 auctions held across the city this week, up from 759 last week when the final auction clearance rate was recorded at 76.0% and similarly, higher than at the same time last year when there were 736 Melbourne auctions with 68.5% of homes selling. This week, there were 3 sub regions which recorded a clearance rate above 80%; Outer East at 89.0%, North West at 82.5% and North East at 82.2%. The region with the highest volume of auctions this week was the Inner region (141).
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For Sydney, the clearance rate across the city this week increased, up to 82.7% from 79.7% last week and 75.4% at the same time last year. Across the city, 841 homes were taken to auction this week, more than last week (794) and significantly higher than one year ago, when 660 Sydney auctions were held. Since mid-August, Sydney’s auction clearance rate has been trending downwards, after the city has seen a record strong performance over the first six months of the year. Despite this, the clearance rate still remains stronger than any other capital city and there are still sub-regions across the city where the clearance rate remains above the 90 per cent mark including Ryde, Eastern Suburbs, Inner West and City and Inner South.
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This week, Brisbane’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 66.0%, compared to 60.2% the previous week and just 44.7% last year. So far, 17 Gold Coast auction results have been reported and the clearance rate for the region is 64.7%.
 
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There were 80 Adelaide auctions this week, with a clearance rate of 60.6% across the 33 results reported so far. Last week, Adelaide’s final auction clearance rate was 64.3%, while one year ago the city saw 60.3% of homes taken to auction sell.
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Across Perth, 10 auctions have been reported so far with a clearance rate of 80.0%, compared to just 18.8% last week and 50.0% at the same time last year. Perth’s clearance rate is often subjected to highs and lows given the low volume of auctions across the city.
Canberra’s preliminary clearance rate was 80.0% this week across 25 results. Last week, 82.1% of Canberra auctions were successful, the second strongest result for the city so far this year.
So far this week, 4 Tasmanian auctions have been reported and of these reported results there has been 1 sale.
 
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Brisbane auctions highest preliminary clearance since 2009: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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As they do every year, new listings increased over the first month of spring, with further additions of stock to the market expected to ramp up until the end of year slow-down in December.
In addition to the number of listings being added to the market CoreLogic RP Data’s lead listings indicator is also showing a 1.6% month-on-month change (seasonally adjusted), with Tasmania (+5.2%) and Victoria (3.4%) showing the most activity of listings being prepared for sale.
In terms of listing stock, the largest proportionate increases this month relative to last month have been observed in Brisbane, where the number of residential properties added to the market over the four weeks ending 27 September was 12.9% higher than the four week period a month earlier. Following Brisbane was Hobart (12.5% higher) and Adelaide (11.0% higher).
Despite the increase in new listings, total stock levels remain just 1.2 per cent higher relative to one year ago across the combined capital cities, while nationally; total listings are -0.6 per cent lower. As at 27 September, there were 234,094 residential properties available for sale across Australia, while one year ago, there were 235,399.
When compared to last year, across the capital cities, total listings are higher in Perth (+20.7%), Darwin (+12.3%) and for the first time this year, Sydney (+4.7%). In Sydney, one of the reasons the total stock levels are now higher than one year ago is likely due to the increase in stock being added to the market. New listings across the city are 16 per cent higher than one year ago, to put this into perspective, over the comparable 28 day period one year ago, 7,431 listings were newly added to the market, compared to 8,617 this year.
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Across the individual states and territories, there are more listings than one year ago in Western Australia, Northern Territory (both +12.9%) and to a lesser degree, South Australia (+2.2%), while across these three regions, the number of new listings added to the market over the past four weeks is lower than one year ago. In all other states and territories, total listings are currently lower than they were relative to last year.
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First month of spring returns lift in new listings: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<div>Auction clearance rates are still booming along in Sydney's eastern suburbs, with a preliminary clearance rate of 84.3% recorded, with the inner west also on fire at 83.8%, according to CoreLogic-RP Data.</div>
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<div>Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic-RP Data has pointed out that every sub-region of Sydney has recorded auction clearance rates of above 80% at some point this year.</div>
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<div>How then has the city-wide clearance rate slipped all the way back to 64.4%?</div>
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<div>The unfortunate truth is that those suckered in to buying late in the cycle in outer western (30 per cent) and south-western Sydney (52.8 per cent) may well soon be sitting on a pile of negative equity, while home loan arrears have tended to be more elevated too. No real surprises here. </div>
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<div>Soft preliminary clearance rates were also recorded for the Central Coast (30%), Baulkham Hills &amp; Hawkesbury (38.5%), Blacktown (42.1%), and Parramatta (39.7%), while the outer south-west may fail to record a single auction sale.</div>
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<div>Of course, not all properties are sold at auction, and preliminary clearance rates by sub-region are essentially only an indicator of market sentiment. </div>
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 Deutsche Bank has put out a research note which indicates that historically Sydney auction clearance rates have needed to decline to around 45% in order to be accompanied by year-on-year price declines. While certain inner suburban clearance rates remain very high as noted above, the above figures represent further evidence that in many areas away from the inner suburbs the investor market has been knocked for six by increased deposit requirements, and stock on market is now rising. Sydney will have some big auction weekends to muddle through before the Christmas break, in the meantime watch out for any handover to owner-occupier mortgage lending.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Auctions fading to black in Sydney outer: Pete Wargent

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The list of the most affordable capital city suburbs in each state and territory highlights the dramatic difference in the cost of housing between the most affordable and most expensive capital cities.
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When we are talking about affordable prices for capital city housing, Hobart is the location of choice with property prices much lower there than across the mainland capital cities.
To highlight this we have looked at selling prices for the bottom decile of homes over the three months to January 2016.  A decile simply divides a group into ten equal parts.  What this means is if there were 20 sales over the three months and we lined the sales up from lowest to highest we would take the 2nd price as a representation of the most affordable segment of the market.
Over the three months to January 2016, the 10th percentile price of a house across the combined capital cities was $315,000 and the 10th percentile unit price was $255,000.  Over the same period, the 10th percentile house price across the combined regional markets was $175,000 compared to $180,000 for units.  This again highlights that housing tends to be much more affordable outside of the capital cities.
<h3>10th percentile price of houses and units  3 months to January 2016</h3>
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 Hobart has the lowest 10th percentile house and unit prices at $205,000 and $167,000 respectively.  Darwin is the second most affordable for houses at $229,000 and for units Adelaide is in second place with a price of $222,000.  At the other end of the spectrum, the 10th percentile house price is highest in Sydney and Darwin (both $430,000) and the unit price is highest in Sydney at $360,000.
The table below highlights the five most affordable capital city suburbs for both houses and units in each state.  The data is based on median values and we have only included suburbs that had at least 10 sales over the 12 months to January 2016.
<h3>Suburbs with most affordable median values, January 2016</h3>
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 The much more affordable nature of Hobart housing is evident when you look at the most affordable lists for each city, particularly for houses.  The five most affordable suburbs for houses in Hobart are all more affordable than the most affordable suburbs in each other capital city.  The data also highlights that housing costs in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra tend to be more expensive than the remaining capital cities.
For units, Adelaide suburbs actually have the most affordable suburbs and certain suburbs in Brisbane are also cheaper than those in Hobart where medium to high density development is less common.  On the other hand, unit values in the most affordable Darwin and Canberra suburbs are much higher than elsewhere.
The data shows that affordable housing options are available in most capital cities however, they tend to be located on the outskirts of the capital cities.  Of course Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane tend to have much more affordable housing options relative to the other capital cities.  Meanwhile, regional markets often offer up even more affordable housing alternatives.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Hobart housing much more affordable than other capital cites

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SPONSORED POST
The Millers Point sales program will kick off in early February with the launch of six blocks of four apartments.
The Millers Point sale program has now yielded more than $300 million for social housing investment across the State.
The Government has sold 125 properties in Millers Point since the sale program commenced, with the program to deliver around 1,500 new social housing dwellings around Sydney and in the Illawarra.
The listings are part of the next stage of the Millers Point program, which includes a new product mix, including a diverse range of lofts and other apartments, blocks of units and terraces to be listed on the market over the coming months. 
Register now at <a href="https://www.rediscovermillerspoint.com.au" target="_blank">www.rediscovermillerspoint.com.au</a>. Further information on these properties will be published over the coming weeks. 
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